Can the Volt revolutionize the auto industry?
I’ve followed hybrid cars, intently, for a long time, and 5 years ago I would have predicted much greater hybrid penetration than exists today. Thus, when Toyota launched the second generation Prius, I believed auto analysts, such as Anthony Pratt of JD Power, for instance, were crazy when they claimed hybrid market share would barely reach 3 percent by 2010.
Unfortunately, however, Mr. Pratt was right.
Thus, as study after study – and analyst after analyst – has concluded that, barring something extraordinary, plug-in vehicle marketshare is going to grow slowly over the next few decades, I’ve carefully listened. If correct, these studies and analysts demonstrate that it will be decades before plug-in vehicles have any real impact on reducing either foreign oil dependency or CO2 emissions.
Based on the last 3 decades of US dependence on foreign oil, another 3 decades seems a scary proposition to this hybrid fan.
Therefore, perhaps alternative fuels, such as natural gas, should be considered more seriously in the interim. Likewise, maybe there should be a greater focus on incentives for conventional hybrids, especially ones that can be converted to plug-in hybrids down the road. Or, maybe just a simple tax credit for any car that achieves 50 mpg on the EPA’s city cycle is the key.
Then again, maybe all the studies and analysts are wrong. Maybe a major breakthrough in lithium-ion chemistry isn’t so far-fetched? Or, maybe gas prices are destined to double in the next decade?
Why might the bulk of the data piling up against mass plug-in adoption in the next decade or two be wrong?
thanks guys,
tom – i still have high expectations for Hyundai's hybrids. supposedly their lithium polymer technology should help them with production costs.
but will it help enough so that hyundai can start producing a few hundred thousand hybrids per year in the next few years???
that seems aggressive. obviously, that won't happen with the sonata hybrid. so, i'll judge Hyundai's seriousness once they offer a unique hybrid for the the US market.
smurf – i completely agree that there should be more focus on putting more and more drivers into conventional hybrids. they are more cost-effective for a far greater percent of consumers and they can still keep pushing innovation into battery technologies.
Dahc,
Welcome back.
I am still leaning towards more hybrids in the short term over EV's. Here's why…..
A hybrid allows one to cut his/her fuel consumption by about 50%, and with a much smaller battery compared to an EV.
Now which is better? 1 million hybrids or 100,000 EV's?
- 1 million hybrids is the same as removing 500,000 cars from the road
- 100,000 EV's, is the same as removing 100,000 vehicles from the road (even if you discount the electric consumption )
With hybrids, you get more impact for less battery….
Dahcredyns very happy to hear you are feeling better. Your absence has been noticed.
As you know I am a Hyundai loyalist so have been hoping they would do something sooner or later. Just seems it's going to be quite a bit later LOL. Do they have the clout to dethrone the king of hybrids? Probably not but hopefully there is room for everyone in the worldwide market.
Wouldn't it be great if every car got 50 mpg – I know, I live in a fantasy land.
Tom G.
Wanted to be involved in this conversation as it went along, but I've been sick the last several days.
Great posts so far.
This morning Toyota announced that it plans to begin producing 1 million hybrids in 2011. That would make hybrids about 16 percent of Toyota's total vehicle fleet.
And by 2013, Toyota will add at least 8 new hybrid models.
By 2020, Toyota plans to make hybrids 30 percent of its fleet.
Thus, it's possible that Toyota alone could be producing around 1.5 million hybrids per year by 2015, as a reference point to Tom's chart.
Essentially, Toyota is the hybrid market.
Will that ever change? Will (can) any other automaker ever compete with Toyota on hybrids? Or, does Toyota simply have a stranglehold on the 5 percent of consumers willing to actually purchase such vehicles?
Ultimately, I'm wondering, could the rest of the major automakers follow Toyota's hybrid lead, or is there room only for one?
Finally, I wonder, can automakers really leapfrog hybrids on the way to plug-in success, or are hybrids destined to be the share leader amongst battery vehicles for at least the next few decades?
There is an excellent article at the following link location about hybrid vehicle market penetration. Also the graph that is shown on the page is a .pdf document and can be opened in a full sized window.
http://www.hybridcars.com/hybrid-drivers/hybrid-market-forecasts.html
Tom G.
The Honda Civic GX can be refilled at home with an accessory CNG compressor called "Phill" that operates overnight from an exixting home natural gas hook up.
Depending on where you live, there may be subsidies available to purchase a home compressor. The SCAQMA(south coast air quality managemanet agency–LA area) was offering a subsidy for natural gas conversions because it is so clean.
The bulk of our present use for natural gas is to heat and cool buildings, and heat water. Solar thermal energy is ideally suited to this use. Solar thermal is ideally suited to this use as an auxilliary system. Your furnace, or hot water heater works exactly the same, it just makes use of solar assist to come on less often and use much less energy when it does. Solar thermal is very simple, easy an inexpensive to manufacture and install, and effective. If drivers were to install Solar Thermal, and use the $$$ and natural gas(or energy) displaced to run their vehicles, they would in effect, be running their vehicles on free solar energy.
There are some good reasons to keep liquid fuels, natural gas presents some problems with handling and storage that make liquids better choices in some situations. Bi-fuel engines that can handle either liquid or gaseous fuel are a better choice it seems to me. They make use of the best qualities of whichever fuel is available.
Diesel engines have been converted to use natural gas for 80 years. They can also use biofuels in any proportion up to 100% bio with no engine modification, or any mix of bio/petroleum. Diesels are also high compression engines that offer efficiency similar to hybrids across the board(city and highway) without the use of resource intensive batteries or complicated expensive electronics.
There are several models of either gas/CHG—flex fuel(gas/ethanol)/CNG—-and European manufactures are moving to clean diesel/CNG bifuel engines. Conversions are available for almost anything made.
Bi-fuel(liquid/CNG) engine vehicles seem to me to offer the ideal solution to independence from imported oil, clean environment, cost effective and well known and proven reliability, and sensible economics.
Final bonus. Methane is a fossil fuel, BUT, methane is also a biofuel. We can make it easily from things we should be doing anyway—like treating sewage and landfills. Methane is also a greenhouse effect gas—17X more so than CO2. If we capture and burn naturally produced methane(for example, treating sewage, or tapping landfills)—mixing just 6% biomethane with fossil methane produces greenhouse effect nuetral emissions. Anything over a 6% mixture will produce greenhouse effect negative emissions. This is the only way I know of that we can actually reverse GHG effect in the atmosphere. Hybrids and EVs can not do this.
Well, I absolutely agree with the the posters frustrations here. At 76 years old, I don't have that many years to wait around so I already own BOTH a hybrid (four years and an EV (three years). But I have not noticed many others joining me although I get lots of questions and "thumbs up".
I think that with EVs, it is the lack of a local dealer, but that does not explain the hybrids question.
The Prius is a better car in ALL ways. It averages 50 mpg, in four years, it has no required a single repair of ANYTHING, it has all of the bells and whistles we need, it is comfortable on long trips, it get better mileage around town, and feels well built. On top of that it is almost as useful as a station wagon with its hatchback.
Some people think of the Prius as a small car. It does not feel small to use.
I don't get why people turn away from it.
I would gladly buy the Honda CNG Civix GX if there were more refueling stations. Unfortunately, there are only three in my area and they are all out of the way.
I can refuel at home of course, but need to spend another 4 grand for the compressor/dispenser.
T Boone Pickens is pushing hard for a comprehensive Natural Gas Act, but our congress is dragging their feet, preferring to ruin our health care system instead.
I share your frustrations Tom.
I talk with my friends, family and co-workers and all of them share my dislike of foreign oil dependence, but they have not been willing to takes their own steps to do anything about it.
They get right back into their trucks and SUV's and wonder how we are going to solve this problem.
That why the US spends $500,000 on foreign oil every minute.
It takes more than "desire" to solve this problem. It takes action.
I'll repeat what I've said before….
We who are truly passionate about this need to adopt an "it starts with me" philosophy and go out and buy these vehicles (if we haven't already done so) and show them off to our friends, family and co-workers.
We need to show them how great these vehicles are and stir up their desires to the point that they will take action themselves.
I think I am making some headway with a few of my co-workers. A couple have committed to buy a hybrid with their next purchase.
Maybe, one person at a time, we can start to move this country in the right direction….
Good sentiments by all. I think all the issues Tom Garven listed, and taken as a whole, may be what leads to a game-changing cross-over by the at-large public to hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles. That may be the factor that the status quo analysts, such as Mr. Pratt, are be overlooking.
Until that time, folks such as ourselves simply need to lead the way whenever we make a purchase of a new vehicle, and do our best to convince our family, friends, and neighbors to do the same.
It will take government action of some sort.
The question is whether our government is brave enough to act…
Our blog host has captured many of my feelings with this post. Why have so few people purchased hybrids? Don't they know how much more fuel efficient they are?
Why haven't people realized how devastating importing 50% of our energy supplies are? Don't people care that we send our young people into harms way just to protect our supply of oil?
Why are we now starting to get excited about compressed natural gas just because we have found some? Isn't natural gas just another form of some carbon based fuel for us to burn up?
Why is it that we seem to be incapable of implementing any kind of strategic energy plan for our country when we already know that 75% of our fellow citizens want us to produce more renewable energy?
We know that our country is chocking on massive debt yet we still continue to provide incentives to oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear and every other form of energy production. How did get from our government funding energy research for the good of society into the business of the redistribution of wealth?
Why is it we seem to always take the easy way out instead of doing what is right? We all know gasoline should be $5.00/gallon, why is it $2.75? If it was $5.00/gallon would we be well on our way to solving some of my other questions?
That's my opinion – what's yours?
I think the studies are right, frankly. Yes, it has been a learning experience to read them and better understand the issues.
We need additional measures, like natural gas and other fuels, like hybrid credits, 50mpg credits, and, I would add, mandates like CA issued that jump started hybrids to begin with. Maybe mandate NG, biofuels, and increase the mandate on hybrids to force GM/Ford/Chrysler to increase their investment.
It will take consistently higher gas prices and greater availability of models to really make them ubiquitous. Raising the gas to a to a level that pays for roads would be a start.
I looked at the Fusion hybrid recently, and only high-end models were available. That basically doubles the hybrid premium an makes it non-competitive for me.