2020: More e-bikes in China than cars in US
100 million electric vehicles strong and growing fast
Back as the Internet bubble was beginning to froth, I remember some very smart people making the argument that no one was ever going to challenge Microsoft without government intervention. The government didn’t need to create competition, I argued, the marketplace would take care of the problem and the Internet would lead the way.
Like the Internet, electrification is also an inevitable game changer, but just as Microsoft misjudged the Internet revolution, so too might major automakers and the government miscalculate the plug-in revolution.
In fact, China might have already biked its way into total plug-in domination.
Companies with the size and power of a Microsoft almost inevitably become complacent. The Big 3 certainly have had their share of such arrogance, although the recent recession did temper this losing attitude to some extent. Even Toyota fell into the same elitist trap, only to be reinvigorated by the entrepreneurial spirit of Elon Musk and Tesla.
Yet, even Musk might have misjudged the electric revolution.
As Americans, we arrogantly assume the rest of the world is inevitably going to become more like us. Why? We’re a pretty dysfunctional bunch. We have so much, yet we use it so unwisely. We excel most at consumption and waste — even when it comes to our plug-in vehicles.
Certainly, others want to consume more, even waste more, but they still have different expectations. Likewise, the Chinese auto market might never go through an SUV craze such as America experienced back in the 90’s. In fact, they might never buy the big is better American automotive mantra. In places like China, big is often a pain in the butt, even if you can afford it.
A plug-in electric bike, or e-bike, on the other hand, fits China’s transportation background, and it’s simply more functional and far cheaper than a car, especially one of American size.
That doesn’t mean the Chinese, and other emerging markets, won’t want cars. They probably will, but they’ll have no problem adapting to much smaller and lighter vehicles than most Americans, even Europeans, would consider. In fact, China can create a new mold for transportation — one that might be more bike-like than car-like, and one that fits the limits of electrification much better than the American, out-of-date, model.
Just as tapping into the Internet doesn’t make a business a winner, as the Internet bubble so eloquently proved, neither does simply chasing electrification. It’s the applications and the business models that will define winners and losers. And dominating electrification will mean leaving last century’s transportation model behind.
Even that realization, however, might not matter because with 100 million electric bikes purchased in just the last decade — in a segment growing far faster than autos — China might have already won the plug-in vehicle revolution.
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