Is there too much focus on new cars?
Today Dot Earth explores the idea of do-it-yourself plug-in electric cars, and whether they represent a way of “tinkering” better efficiency into personal transportation. The piece doesn’t really come to any hard conclusions, other than that there is a market, but overall the movement is probably too expensive for most.
Still, the piece touches upon an issue that I have hit upon a number of times. Essentially, waiting for new cars to create real change is a very long term approach.
Even if a revolutionary battery breakthrough were achieved today that made electric cars as convenient and cost-effective as conventional cars, it would still take many years to fully implement this battery technology into just production lines and new car sales, let alone the 250+ million fleet of vehicles already on US roads. Yet, the longer we wait, the bigger the problems of foreign oil dependency and pollution become. And, sadly, any such revolution could be many years or even decades away from reality.
So, are there other forms of tinkering?
If I were in Congress I’d do some tinkering with the plug-in tax credit. In fact, I’d destroy it. Instead, I’d create a $2,000 lithium tax credit for any full hybrid, or at least any hybrid that could easily be converted into a plug-in hybrid down the road if the battery technology becomes cost-effective. Additionally, I’d pick lithium because it wouldn’t favor Toyota too much, since Toyota is still trying to squeeze every bit of cash they can out of their NiMH battery investment.
Ultimately, in my opinion, the auto industry could put many more plug-less hybrid cars on the road far faster for the same amount of money as the current plug-in tax scheme. And if they are plug-in conversion ready, then more tinkering can come later.
But, of course, that’s not really the kind of ‘tinkering’ Dot Earth had in mind.
To me it seems the only real tinkering that could possibly make sense would have to be centered around alternative fuels, such as biodiesel, natural gas, propane, etc. But that’s not going to happen unless driven by the right kind of incentives.
Unfortunately, tinkering just isn’t going to get the job done.

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