The X plug-in SUV makes sense, but I'd like something more daring
Could a higher plug-in standard be set?
If you believe in the trickle down theory of technology, the Tesla Model X — teased today by Tesla — makes a lot of sense. A luxury electric SUV compliments Tesla’s Model S, creating greater scale, while enabling the company to better leverage the technologies it is outsourcing to the likes of Chrysler and Toyota, such as for the RAV4 EV.
But I think that as visionary as Tesla has been this early in the plug-in game, they’ve missed a big opportunity.
While I understand the trickle down economics of plug-in vehicles, I also believe that the future of plug-in vehicles — at least the interim future — has been miscalculated. Not every vehicle will be a plug-in, as Tesla CEO Elon Musk has suggested in the past, by 2030, for instance. Plug-ins have a much tougher road ahead and the science is evermore reinforcing that point beyond any doubt — assuming a plug-in future based upon today’s auto sale’s story.
However, and fortunately something many in the plug-in community understand, consumer expectations and perceptions have to change in order to accelerate plug-in adoption. Unfortunately, even those in the plug-in community aren’t seeing the even bigger picture. The change in consumer psychology needed is even far more disruptive than accepting less range, and plugging-in instead of liquid refueling.
That suggestion might seem a bit far-fetched today, but I don’t think it will before even 2020 — probably still long before batteries are really ready to shake up the industry.
Technologies like carbon fiber, self-driving programs, and telematics, for example, offer the potential to change everything about transportation. And millennial consumer studies demonstrate just how ripe the future of consumers is to such revolutionary change.
But few are aggressively pursuing this future, including Tesla. While many can see a future where a gasoline engine is replaced with a battery, few can envision change beyond just powertrain swapping.
Think about the many baby boomers and gen x’ers tethered to their cell phones these days. It’s pretty amazing compared to the telecommunications experienced 20 years ago by these cohorts. Millennials, on the other hand, are tethered to applications. The cell phone is already taken for granted. It’s not about being connected. It’s about staying connected and interactive all the time. Updating all the time. Communicating instantly all the time.
Transportation can and will support, extend, and even add-to, this connectivity and result in entirely new business models for mobility, many that will only make the economics of electrification more viable. But the future of mobility will look very different — feel very different — than it does today.
Instead of thinking in terms of electrification, perhaps the future should be thought of in terms of digitization. Seamless connectivity with the cloud will drive the future, and that means programs like auto-drive are being significantly under-estimated today, largely because baby-boomers are most responsible for forecasting the future, but most baby boomers are still too grounded in the past.
But, I’ve gone down this road before, so let’s drive back to Tesla.
50,000 plug-in sales. That’s what I’m talking about.
It’s not a very big number, yet I don’t think any automaker will achieve such a sale’s figure without government and fleet sales this year, and maybe not for a few years. Nevertheless, the production of 50,000 plug-in vehicles has to be within Tesla’s reach, in terms of manufacturing capabilities. So, why not strive to be the best selling automaker of plug-in vehicles right now? Wouldn’t that be quite a marketing slogan for Tesla to hang its hat on today?
Bigger than GM, Nissan and Toyota. Tesla sells more electric cars than any other automaker in the world. Has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?
On the other hand, the fact that Tesla apparently cannot conceive and produce a plug-in electric car that can achieve 50,000 sales per year today tells me the plug-in sector is extremely immature right now, and the near term future will be more about losers than winners. Too few are changing the game enough just yet to begin rocking the mainstream auto industry off its gas-guzzling foundation.
Reinventing the car is going to require more than just batteries because its not just about the car, it’s about the entire concept of mobility and what mobility can offer to end users. And millenials will eventually prove that transportation is about more than just moving from A to B, or even driving. They, and the generations to follow, will demand a much more robust mobile experience.
Until then ‘world’s largest EV automaker’ would sound pretty impressive for the likes of Tesla, as it would push them even further into the future of transportation than just their unique battery technology will take them.
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